HIV/AIDS article outline

The HIV/AIDS epidemic is one of the greatest threats to Africa's economic development. The issue of economic development in Africa is a contentious one, and so this article tries to be as objective as is possible in its analysis. This article is, on the one hand, a summary of a growing literature examining the economic impact of HIV/AIDS in sub-Saharan Africa. The economic impact of the epidemic is analysed at the aggregate level, in terms of its effect of levels and growth rates of GDP, and at the level of individuals and firms. The role for economic growth is itself a controversial one in development debates; here growth is taken as a useful indicator of development, whether growth should therefore be the focus for policy is not an issue I will take up here. Secondly, I analyse the means through which HIV/AIDS affects growth prospects in sub-Saharan Africa in the near and long term.

To summarise these two strands: Sub-Saharan Africa contains almost 26 million of the 40 million people world-wide infected with HIV. Although prevalence varies across the region, Southern Africa remains the epicentre of the epidemic. The economic impact is widespread and potentially disastrous. It is estimated that HIV/AIDS is already reducing sub-Saharan growth by up to 1.4 points annually; over two decades this would reduce a typical sub-Saharan economy to less than two-thirds of what it would have been without HIV/AIDS. It has been argued that this makes it impossible for Africa to achieve the MIllenium Development Goals. Perhaps most significantly, the effects are expected to increase over time, as the economic impact itself fosters an environment in which the epidemic proliferates. The means through which HIV/AIDS affects growth is the labour market; the supply of labour across the economy is vastly reduced by illness and mortality from HIV/AIDS. This affects individuals, households, firms and the government, and spills over into the factors influencing the long run growth potential of an economy.

outline by tom yeomans